As the NFL season winds to a close there are a lot of teams, and fans of those teams, that are now scratching their heads saying now what? So I'm going to tell you what I think they *should* do whether you want me to or not.
Up first, the Dallas Cowboys. Horrible loss ends the second season in a row, this time after five weeks of dominating performances that had visions of the Lombardi trophy dancing in Jerry Jones' soulless eyes. However, the team is not as bad as the score made it look, and I'm about to tell you the down and dirty changes they can make to fix things before the wheels come off completely.
If the QB is the heart of your team, the O-Line is the spine, and Dallas's has a couple herniated disks that were horribly exposed on Sunday. Flozell Adams (34) has been the anchor of that line that has come to symbolize the Dallas Cowboys of the last few years. It's tough, it's big, and can run on anybody. The trouble is as the left tackle that's not his job. His job is to neutralize the most dangerous pass rushers the other team has. Sadly age appears to be taking his tole on him and he no longer has the wheels to do so. There are really two fixes here, one you get rid of the guy, two you could move him inside to guard where he could replace Leonard Davis (31) who was exposed all season failing to pick up blitzes and stunts that wrecked havok on the Cowboys backfield in numerous games. But this is a quick fix to keep a player the organization is attached to. The Cowboy's learned this season about how you really CAN get addition by subtraction, now it's time to take the next step in re-tooling their team for the next level.
Cut Adams and Leonard Davis. Then either bring in a new center and move Gurode back to his natural position of guard (to eliminate some of those muffed snaps), or bring in a new athletic guy who can adjust to those blitz's and stunts. You'll retain the veteran leadership on that line that can easily adjust to a new face or two without disrupting the pass protection they can offer and cover up a blaring disparity that was exposed. A left tackle is hard to come by, Free played well in spots, maybe he's the guy or maybe you bring in someone new, but either way a change has to be made going forward if the Cowboys are going to take the next step.
While you're at it. Cut Roy Williams and just make it official Cowboy policy NEVER to draft or sign a guy with that name again. See.... easy.
On the defensive side of the ball they were very solid and should feel great about next year. They were put in horrible positions during the Minnesota game and yet kept the Cowboys in the game until the 4th quarter despite turnovers and disasters of biblical proportions on the offensive side of the ball. The Safety position finally seems to have been solidified and Mike Jenkins has stepped up in a big big way this season becoming a great young corner. I think the word of the day here is Nickle back. How much longer is Terrance Newman going to last? Has he lost the step as it looks like he has or as the emergence of Mike Jenkins just meant he's being tested more? He's been a great player, but he's never truly lived completely up to his potential. He's worth keeping, but with his injury history it's time to consider as he turns 32 next year, you're going to need a replacement for him probably sooner rather than later. Look now.
There are a few unsung heroes on the Dallas D-line. Everyone knows about Ware. Spencer, Ratcliff are great players as well. Igor Olshansky has emerged as a guy who can come in and make in impact, particularly inside helping to shut down the run game, but I despite the wealth of defensive ends on their current roster, unless they are hiding someone from us, they seem to need someone else on that end. For years they've thought Spears was going to be that guy, but I think it's time to just admit that he's not going to develop into him and look for someone else to fill those shoes. As the Giants taught us a few years ago, there's no such thing as having too many guys who can come off the end and create chaos in the backfield, and the injury to Ware this season should have put the fear of God into the cowboys about what it would mean to their defense if he went down for any length of time. Add some depth.
Love of GOD find a kicker already! Vanderjat, Suisham, Folk, back to Suisham on back even before that they haven't found a guy to hang their hat on at that position and depend on. Well you've got until August, find him, NOW. It might not seem like a priority considering other issues, and it's not, until it is a problem that cost you football games. It has for the cowboys this season. That means it's time to get it fixed.
Let me know what you think, I'll always argue football. :jointpasssmiley:
Next time: Detroit Lions: Champions of the NFL Draft.
Philly needs to fire Marty Mournweig....this is a MUST
SHawn ANdrews, a pro bowl Tackle....hasn't played in 2 years. He needs to return.
Linebackers. Kirk Morrison from the Raiders, UFA, PICK HIM UP!
Detroit Lions:
From 2000-2009, Nine years, the Detroit Lions have picked in the top ten on Draft Day... Seven Times. Which surprised me, I was expecting to hear Nine times.
But, I had forgotten they actually were winning a few games with Joey H-Bomb at QB. Let's talk about a few of those draft picks shall we?
2000- 1 20 McDougle, Stockar An offensive tackle from Oklahoma... no longer with the team
2001- 1 18 Backus, Jeff T Michigan- actually still with the team having started 16 games for them every seasons since he was drafted.
2002-1 3 Harrington, Joey QB Oregon More on him later, no longer with the team
2003- 1 2 Rogers, Charles WR Michigan State no longer with the team
2004- 1 7 Williams, Roy WR Texas No longer with the team traded to Dallas for three picks
2005- 1 10 Williams, Mike WR Southern California. Third number one receiver in a row... third bust bust bust!
2006 1 9 Sims, Ernie LB Florida State Still with the team and been a tackler, but definitely not a guy who puts any pressure on the QB
2007 1 2 Johnson, Calvin WR Georgia Tech Four number one receivers in this span of time?! Well at least they finally got one that can play right?
2008 1 17 Cherilus, Gosder T Boston College Too early to tell on him yet. From Haiti. mentioned only so your thoughts can be with him and his family.
2009 1a. 1 Stafford, Matthew QB Georgia
1b. 20 Pettigrew, Brandon (from Dal) TE Oklahoma State Two picks this year thanks to the roy williams trade.
So what do we have here. One Tackle who is still playing, another drafted tackle who didn't start all 16 games, One Three busts at wide receiver, one anchor tackling linebacker... well christ at least someone on the team can tackle right? These are the guys who should be leading this team to the play offs right now... right? You'd think by shear luck they'd have had better than that.
The moral of the story here is two fold. You cannot build an offense until you can keep your quarterback on his feet. Joey Harrington had all the talent in the world, he was smart, made good decisions, and could have done great things for the lions. But instead of investing up front to give him a shot, they drafted disaster after disaster trying to build a high powered offense they couldn't support. Give Stafford a chance, trade down, rebuild your defensive and offensive lines for the love of god! Or Stafford is going to go the way of Harrington and Carr, sacked, beaten, and blasted out of the league or into journyman backup status before anyone really has a chance to see what they can do. Personally I think the lions made a mistake drafting stafford last year, I think they should have invested up front THEN rebuilding that team and let Kitna take the shots that meant taking for another season while you brought the line together. You have to become mediocre before you can get good, and they are a terrible terrible football team. They have a running back, they have a receiver, and they have a potential qb. Invest to protect them, and in your defense and build some confidence in the locker room among the players that things are improving. Get those young guys to buy into building something special, otherwise first shot they get the ones with talent will be out the door and you're starting over from scratch all over again ah la Cleveland.
Yeah, Calvin Johnson and Pettigew IMO are the only 2 that have panned out. Sims would be a good #2 on most teams, and Stafford needed 2-3 years as a backup to learn the NFL type of game, but the potential is there.
Now their o-line on the other hand.......
Tennessee Titans, A Tale of Two Seasons.
This time last year the Titans looked unstoppable rolling through the regular season, only to come up short against a very solid Steeler squad in the AFC Championship game. But that's not the the two seasons I'm talking about... I'm talking about 0-6 and 8-2, talk about a turn around! The very fact that they were mathematically in the playoff hunt until week 16 after an 0-6 start is baffling off the top of my head I don't know that anyone who started 0-6 has ever made the playoffs. I'll have to look at that later, but the point is the Owner forced Jeff Fisher's hand, they made the change at QB let Johnson off the chain and holy crap they became a good football team again.
There are a few points though that we need to talk about with the Titans if they want to take the next step. This kind of up and down season is not what you'd expect of the oldest team in the league by average. Yes, that's right the OLDEST. You'd expect a weak start and a strong finish from a team loaded with young prospects who started coming together late. With an older team you'd have expected them to fade late and start strong. It's difficult to say what accounted for this exactly, but the heart of the matter is even last year they were a run first football team for the most part. They did running back by committee and that took pressure off their defense which made them look a lot better than it really was. This year, they came out throwing first for the most part and the whole thing unraveled. Let's look at some numbers now.
2009:
NAME CMP ATT YDS CMP% YDS/A LNG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDS RAT
Vince Young 152 259 1879 58.7 7.26 66 10 3.9 7 2.7 9 36 82.8
Kerry Collins 119 216 1225 55.1 5.67 69 6 2.8 8 3.7 6 37 65.5
The pass attempts are pretty close really, but a few key stats that are surprises here. Vince Young managed a higher completion percentage with more Yards per attempt. That's not really something you'd expect if Kerry Collins is the "pocket passer", additionally Young threw more TDs that Interceptions for the first time in his career and finished the season with an 82% QB rating also a career high for him. One thing that jumped out me is the similarity to Kerry Collin's numbers from the 08 season:
CMP ATT CMP% YDS YDS/A TD LNG INT RAT
2008 242 415 58.3 2676 6.4 12 56 7 80.2
Again something that leaps out at you hear with Kerry Collin's numbers from last year, the Yards Per Attempt were just a 6.4, that's scary low, and really goes to show you two things. That Collin's wasn't as good as he looked last season, and also something that most everyone already knows, the Titans have no great wide receivers. With Vince Young back in control they seem to have found their stride and have gotten back some of the swagger they lost earlier this year, that bodes well for the future. He was resilient this year, seemed confident, in control, and take charge on the field and off.... everything you want to see from a young quarterback. Will be be able to keep it going next season? I think so, if the Titans make the right other moves to help him out.
Let's start with the running game. You're thinking "But Bryan, Johnson is god!" Well maybe, but let's look at the numbers of a couple of Titan's RBs and break them down.
2009:
NAME ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
Chris Johnson 358 2006 5.6 91 14 3 3
LenDale White 64 222 3.5 11 2 1 1
2008:
Chris Johnson 251 1228 4.9 66 9 1 1
LenDale White 200 773 3.9 80 15 0 0
Holy butt farts batman! 358 Carries? Now don't get me wrong, Chris Johnson is a stud, but time and time again we've seen proven of the last ten-fifteen years, that's too much to put on the shoulders of one running back over the long haul. Look at the drop off in the number of carries LenDale White had in this same period. Now he's not supposed to get massive yards per carry, that's not his job, his job is to bang inside and slow down the opponents pass rush giving the qb more time in the pocket and helping out that offensive line. He helps enable the passing game to be more effective by just plain wearing people out. But if for some reason the coaching staff isn't happy with him, then look for another running back to take at least 70 more carries away from Johnson, yeah it'll hurt his bottom line numbers, but you need this kid for the rebuilding to come, you need him for the next six-eight years, not the next two.
33, 31, 32, 31, 35, 33. No those aren't overly optimistic lottery numbers, they are the ages of key defensive starters for the Titans. Now they seem to have recognized this at a few positions, they have a couple young LBs Tulloch and McRath, the latter of which I'd like to have seen them try to work in more down the stretch, no time like an 8-8 no playoff season to see what a rookie is made of. And a slew of rookie CBs that we've really not seen enough from to make a judgment. But at most positions the backups are almost as old as the starters... this is a bad bad thing. They're not developing much if any good young talent to take over when these time bombs go off and suddenly fall apart on them. Jeff Fisher and the front office of the Titans ARE playing the lottery, by putting this squad on the field. It's time for a shake up, it's time to get younger. Yes it's going to cost you at least one game next season, do it anyway. You're not going to the superbowl next year anyway, but you've got a shot in two years if you play this right, how many of the aforementioned players are going to be in tip top playing shape in two years?.... Act accordingly.
Something else I wanted to talk about is the Tight End position. Bo Scaife is a solid tight end, and Jared Cook *looks* promising. But make a decision and make it soon, because having a good relationship between the tight end and the quarterback is going to help your team tremendously. He's the dump off of first resort in a successful offense, and if one of these guys can't emerge as a number one go to receiver. Look elsewhere, fast.
My final thought on the Titans is going to be the most controversial. Jeff Fisher. It's time for him to go. I think he's a good coach but there comes a time when you've been somewhere too long, he let his own personal stigma color his coaching decisions this season, and flushed the year down the drain. Now since there has been no movement on this front already it's safe to say that his job is safe for another year... but the "save" of the season wasn't due to Jeff Fisher, it was because the owner forced his hand with a QB change so they could see what they had in Vince Young either for the future or for trade bait. They found out that like Parcells before him Fisher was married to 'his guy' regardless of what was better for the football team. Fisher is going to be a good coach for a long long time, but I think the time has come for him to do it somewhere else and for a new regime in Tennessee to take over. Food for thought.
I am thinking a column here for NFL called 'NFL: A Payne Filled Outlook'
Give us something weekly? We can pin it and then you can open discussion threads.
Sounds fun, since I'd probably be ranting about something at least that often anyway, lol. Sign me up.
Excellent idea....I would like to discuss the topics for sure.
My team is a weird case.
Over the past few years, the Bengals have been known as an offensive team with a porous defense. This year, it's the exact opposite. I've figured out that their receiving corps aren't what they used to be. Ochocinco has lost a step since last season and while he still has good hands and moves, he doesnt have that explosive speed anymore. Matter of fact, their best deep threat this season was Chris Henry, and we all know what happened there. Laverneous (sp?) Coles wasn't the answer to replace Houshmandzadeh, this much is obvious.
I'd suggest opening their wallets for a big name receiver. I have no idea who will be available in the offseason, so I won't try to venture a guess. But they need a guy who is a legit downfield threat. Team him with Ochocinco and the young guy Andre Caldwell and that's a decent enough receiving corps. Also, the one thing Palmer has never had was a legit TE safety valve. I know these are hard to find, but they need a legit pass catching tight end. They kinda relied on Foschi towards the end of the season but I dont know that he's a long-term answer.
For the first time in Lord knows how long, I can't think of a single thing they need on defense. I mean sure, they could always use a little depth but Im proud to death of the D.
?
SUcked for their D when Odom got hurt early....he looked like he could have got 15 sacks or so.
And then there were two... The Colts and the Saints. I'm pretty happy with out the Conference Championships turned out myself, it's given us two teams that should make an exciting fast passed game at the Super Bowl (also the pure ecstasy of watching Brett Farve make yet another blunder late in a game to cost his team.) So, because you're settling in for TWO full weeks of pre-game hype, I'm going to point out a few things about these teams and this match up so you can just cut the suspense and move on with your life and basically ignore everything until that Sunday.
Now it looks at first blush like these two teams match up pretty well, field general behind center, talented group of young receivers, good offensive line... but impossibly, and I can't believe I'm saying this, the Colts have the much stronger defense going into this game. Now some of you out there are saying "but Bryan, the saints run the football, the colts can't stop the run," I beg to differ they held the Jets and Ravens to under 4 yards a carry the last two weeks in addition to making big big plays in the passing game and keeping both qbs under constant pressure. These aren't the Colts of the early 00's where Payton and company had to run up 40 points to have a prayer of winning.... that's Arizona's job now. No these guys are steady, keep the ball, wear the defense out and swarm the guy with the ball, type football team now. Is their defense perfect? Of course not, but the fact that their offense has been for a decade the best in football AND now they have the better defense in a game? Forget about it. This game is going to turn into one of those games we get all hyped up for only to find out the game is curiously lopsided. Because the Saint's just don't match up on both sides of the ball, at this point I don't think anyone does when apparently any random rookie or practice squad player can be turned into an all-pro by the guy throwing the football. Sorry to all the Saint's fans out there, but this one isn't going to be very close when the final whistle sounds, and we'll remember it as the night Manning put to bed the 'who's the best QB in football' discussion... number 18.
So overall the biggest question that's going to be answered at the Super Bowl this year is... how will Bud Light top THIS add?... Genius! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD9eZ6QKux0
Where's the Beef?: The Washington Redskins
Where for art thou Redskins?
Byner and Williams of old
Art Monk has retired
Dion Sanders expired
and Joe Gibbs threw in the towel.
Bad poetry aside the Redskins have been putting new meaning to the phrase "much ado about nothing" for six or seven seasons. Spending massive amounts of money on big name free agents who fail to produce and are then promtly replaced before any kind of unit cohesiveness can be formed. We all know the reason for this, the owner, so there's not really a lot we can do about it. Perhaps Shannehans deal will allow him to make some of these personnel decisions to be able to make the changes on the roster that need to happen in order for them to succeed again. Right now, they are the bastard step children of the NFC East... and that's the Eagles job damnit!
So what should be his number one priorities going in?
1) Clinton Portis. This isn't the guy that helped Denver get over the Terrell Davis hump anymore. Since coming to Washington he's been banged up, unproductive, and misused to the point that starting next season as a 29 year old RB that looks decidedly average, you have to wonder if this isn't on the Coach's number one wish list... a couple fresh pairs of legs. Joe Gibbs may have pretty much ended this guy's career during his tenure with the Redskins trying to turn Portis into a power style up the middle running back without the dominating offensive line that made it possible for the Redskins of old to get away with that with big banging Earnest Byner. He's not that guy and they're not that football team. He spent three seasons banged up, but managed to each year struggle through as only a tough, stud running back can. He still had the stuff, and then this season he finally goes down for the rest of the season. When an allstar RB nearing 30 goes down with an injury, you have to wonder if he's going to come back quite as good as he was before.... when a RB that's become average goes down with an injury... you start looking for trade offers and draft pick options.
2) WHAT's THE FUCKING PLAY!!?!. I feel for Jason Cambell, I really do. The most important thing for a young qb to do in this league is to get in, learn the system, and get a couple years with it under his belt. I think at this point Cambell would be better off playing for the Raiders who at least have been averaging a year and a half between coaching changes lately instead of about ten months. This guy has never really had a chance to show what he could do when given that consistency, it's always back to school time for him. I mean just think about the difference between Cambell's path and people like Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo... guys who came into more or less stable coaching situations and have been able to fully digest the playbook over the course of several years. Now some people might say he doesn't belong in that conversation, but his arm is strong, he's a leader on and off of the field, the truth is we don't know how much of what he does are bad decisions and just not being 100% comfortable with any of the five difference offenses banging around inside that helmet of his. But for Cambell it really is time to show someone something, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Redskins draft a QB (however much they SHOULD draft a running back), and with a high draft pick like that there's going to be a ton of pressure to sit him on the bench with a slow start. With the likelihood of Shannahan getting several years to turn things around... meaning the first period of consistency this guy has ever seen is coming, that could mean once his butt hits the bench it's over for him in Washington. Personally, I think that might be a good thing for him.
3) Do I know you? The only thing in Washington changing faster than the offensive scheme has been the names of the guys on both sides of the ball trying to take the calls. You cannot build a football team exclusively through free Agency, its' been tried and tried and tried and in the salary cam era it's just impossible. You are required to have too many starters that wouldn't have made the Dallas Cowboys, 49ers, or Buffalo Bills, practice squads in the 90's. No, you win in todays NFL by developing the talent you get in the draft, and adding a couple of pieces with free agency. The problem is when you drop most people into a defense it takes them half a season to really settle in, for everyone to fully trust them learn to play off each other and know what the other guy is going to do before he does it. That kind of synthesis is what allowed the Pats to be so dominating on that side of the ball for so long, the Ravens as well, a core group of guys who knew each other so well thinking didn't enter the equation they just acted on pure instinct. The Redskins haven't developed that kind of relationship between their players on either side of the ball, they haven't had time. Even the timing between Cambell and his receivers which have been together a couple of years now isn't what it should be because the scheme they're running keeps chaning around them. The Culture of "these three guys will give us a superbowl" has to be changed for this team to begin to rebuild, they have to get out from under contracts of vets who haven't panned out before they can build and maintain a group of young hungry players with the key veteran leadership a successful team needs.
My verdict here is that Mike is going to fail. Not because he's not a great coach, but because he is. He's going to come in and take the right steps to fix this thing, but after a couple of seasons the owner is going to can his ass, bring in someone else, who will benefit from everything he put into place. This thing isn't totally broken they have some good players, what they need to build is a team. And that takes time, and patience, two things that are in short supply in Washington.
I agree with most about the Skins, but Portis hasnt been unproductive. 6 seasons there, and only 4 which he didnt eclipse 1,100 rushing yards or more, and 2 years of double digits in the TD's.
He certain fell a bit from when he was playing for the Broncos, but unproductive....that would mean he wouldn't hit 1000 yards a year (which as a running back for 3 academic seasons) is one of the goals you set, he was very productive. It's the lack of O-Line which has hurt his TD colum as the Skins are awful when it comes to the redzone, and the lack of blocking Portis gets at Washington as compared to what he got in Denver, will result in injuries.
Remember, a running back is only as good as his o-line. 'Skins O-line, unproductive and injury prone. Portis getting hammered almost every drive due to a lack of blocking = injuries.
Still going to have to respectfully disagree with Portis. It's the yards per carry that show his fall off... I mean you give a guy averaging 1 yard a carry a thousand carries he's still going to break 1,000 yards.. And much of the reason for it is that he's not built to be a between the tackles runner. He needs a deep passing game and a slashing running game that allows him to make that one cut and turn on the jets. They've been running him hey diddle diddle right up the middle for years. Now as I said in the piece much of this isn't his fault, what I doubt at this point is his ability to BE that old back even if they fix the rest of the team. I don't think he's that guy anymore.. he's been too banged up and has too many miles (carries) over the last few years. In two more years we'll be mentioning him in the same breath as Emmett Smith or Curtis Martin... two running back who perhaps played a couple seasons past when they should have hung up their pads.
New Orleans and the Mannings
In 1971 when Archie Manning was drafted by the New Orleans Saints, people considered it a horrible waste of talent. That this man would never come into is own playing for a team that new and, frankly that awful. It's very easy to argue that they were right, while his play was good for most of his run with the Saints, the team never enjoyed much success... really it never has, as this being their first ever Super Bowl appearance attests. However, along the way he attained a kind of mythic status, playing so well on a team so bad, he became New Orlean's favorite son, despite being born in Mississippi. When you fast forward to today, Peyton had a similar trajectory with the Colts as the team was resurrected from the dead by QB play into a team who has won more games in the last ten years that any team ever has over a ten year span. To many he's the best in the game, but to the Saints, he's the son of their legendary hero come to crush their dreams of a Super Bowl victory.
This is one of the more interesting subplots in the game coming up in another week. There's a lot of talk about the legacy of Manning when he retires, as his career is well over half over now, perhaps two or three seasons at the top form, and then perhaps he could linger on a couple years after that Farve-style, you never know. But he's sure to leave the game with his share of records and likely with at least two super bowl rings. Is he the best in the game ever? In my opinion yes (and yes I'm saying ever throw out what names you will.) No Quarterback in history has run an offense quite like his...and it IS his offense, the offensive coordinator is almost superfluous on the Colts team as 60% of the calls are made by Manning at the line. Many people consider Joe Montana the best ever, and he was good, but as Steve Young proved... ultimately he was replaceable in that offense. What do the Colts do when Peyton retires? Probably begin a decade long search for a replacement.
This seems to be kicking up specters of yester-year in the imaginations of Saints fans. As they watch their team this year and it's amazing run, they are forced to wonder what might have been with just a few more players to surrounded Archie in the 70's. It wouldn't have been easy to bump and slam their way up the ranks during those days with the Steelers, Dallas, and Dolphins all so good at the time, but it does capture the imagination something fierce. Most by now will have read or heard about the commitment to 'take Manning' out of the game, in a manner not unlike that which brings up to mind the infamous threats of the Eagles against Cowboy QB Troy Aikman. Such threats are mostly idle boasting, psychological warfare, are mind games, that are only going to make Peyton lose all bonds of familial nostalgia towards the Saints he might have felt to keep the game close... and aren't going to get into the head otherwise of a guy who has faced some of the toughest defenses in NFL history over the years... and beaten most of them. The Saints D... isn't in that class.
It opens up the specter of what is dirty play really? In this age of protecting players from hits and trying to minimize injury to preserve product quality, the Saint's defense has opened itself up to closer scrutiny by the officials, the possibility of ejections for trying to fulfill that "taking out," fines, and flags galore that will not only make the game less enjoyable.. but prevent us from seeing the contest we all want to. I think it's obvious that trash talking isn't going anywhere in today's league however much it tries to stress sportsmanship it works against a player culture that promotes inflating egos on the way up until it's just wishful thinking to expect them to reign it in. For many this results in a popped bubble, and for others looking for excuses to take cheap shots at those who achieve what they can only dream about. So my advise to the Saints is to keep in clean on Super Sunday, for your fans, for your city, and most importantly for yourselves.
I want my football!
So, the Super Bowl has come and gone, and rather than repeating ten thousand articles and commentaries (questionable reffing aside) I'm going to move to the next thing that should be weighing on everyone's mind... the new CBA negotiations. Now unlike most people I don't live in fear of the March 5th deadline to avoid or end up with an uncapped year, if anything the uncapped year will be a powerful motivation for both small market teams and players to compromise (and yes, I am confident that Jerry Jones will open the check book and go on a spending spree that would make Midas blush.) Now the current CBA entitles players to just a shade under 60% of the profits as far as salaries as a portion of shared revenue of the NFL. But it's important to remember that what qualifies as 'football revenue' is just TV rights and the gates. That's one of the big reasons owners have made the push to build these monster new stadiums in recent years because any money the raise that is earmarked FOR that purpose the players don't see jack from. The players also don't get a portion of skybox rentals, merchandising, or any sponsorship deals the team works out. That represents the highest growing revenue sector for the teams themselves. Now the upshot of this is that while increasing their revenue and building a monster stadium the increased tv and ticket prices feed back into the salary cap making not just the upper limit but the minimum they are allowed to spin. The current minimum cap, the amount that a team HAS to spend (currently 70% of the Detroit Lions TOTAL revenue) is over 100 million bucks already. That's a tall order for the NFL's small market teams or those who have been losing so long their fans just don't give a shit anymore.
So what does all of this mean for us? Well if the owners and the players can't reach an agreement by March 5th (which seems unlikely) 2010 will be a totally uncapped year, meaning no maximum, no minimum salary caps... and also several big name players no longer being eligible for unrestricted free agency. Basically the status quo only a few teams will take the opportunity not to give pay raises and others will enter an unrestricted bidding war for a few key free agents. If the owners and players haven't reached an agreement by March 5 2011, then the owners will begin the lock out. Much like the NHL's lost season this would not be a strike, it would be the owners not allowing the players to go to work and closing down all facilities. Different because there would be no "scab" players as happened in the MLB strike of several years ago and the NFL strike of the 80's. Upshot is you're going to have your football next year for sure, but the year after that is what you're going to have to worry about. For the players they want to preserve as much of the status quo as possible but there are whispers they might be moved on the restructuring of rookie salaries as it works with the Draft. That would be something that would help most teams, but I feel pretty sure it will have to come with a limit 2-3 seasons for rookie contract length... which would let rookies that DO prove to be superstars, the opportunity to renegotiate.
The unfortunate thing for me is how the players tend to get tared in these kinds of disputes when their share of revenue as a percentage of the most profitable sport in American history is actually decreasing. Without these players football would NOT be the phenomenon it is and they should get a fair share of the profits from that business, especially as it ends for so many in premature death (average death for an NFL player is in their fifties... IE you can expect every year of professional football played to take about 2 years off your life expectancy), not to mention those who are forced to stop playing due to injury. A team like the Patriots, or Cowboys has made tens to hundreds of millions off of merchandise sales that the players themselves don't see a dime off of unless they are selling their autograph. Obviously there are problems with the current CBA, as the small market teams are being left behind. The fix for this is either getting rid of the salary cap, or making ALL revenue 100% redistributed among all the teams, with a figure more around 55% (about a 15% reduction in player percentage but a net increase in cap). Alas this is unlikely as large market teams have no reason to settle for this or be willing to commit to it. So folks enjoy next season, because this time next year we may be in for a long long cold fall of 2011 w/o football.
Id like to hear your thoughts on what Philly need to do to win a super bowl
Oh my, request number one. No fears my friend, a "how too" guide to get over that hump for Philly coming up.
Eagles: Two Roads Diverged in Wood
The Eagles have two main options on the road to the Super Bowl, the trouble is neither path is a sure bet and littered with the careers of coaches who took the path. If they go the wrong way Andy Reid's career will become just another causality. First let's debunk one thing: Donovan McNabb is not now, nor has he ever been the problem. He has given the Eagles nothing but good leadership, steady play, and constancy over the last ten years of his career. His numbers this year are great, and overall the team played well. Over the last several years the Eagles have gotten younger, a good thing, and they've added depth and talent at receiver and running back which the offense has needed for MOST of that same decade. My biggest wonder is why they didn't do this years ago, but there you have it.
The problem here is that much of the team IS still developing and emerging talent, promising... but continuing on this path is probably going to take them a couple more years for it all to come together. And that is what you're going to gamble on if you keep McNabb at this point that he's going to STILL be a good Quarterback then. The Eagles have quietly been in a rebuilding mode the last couple of years replacing the players that helped them on their last failed attempt to bring home the ring. They didn't throw out the baby with the bathwater though, they've done it piece by piece and so remained competitive the last several seasons even while they were busy dumping vets close to the end and replacing them part by part through some rather good drafting of late. (Perhaps underrated drafts at the time).
That being the case my way forward is going to jerk some heads. Trade McNabb now; in the uncapped year, while he still has some value left to a struggling franchise and get the last pieces of the puzzle. Next season you can add more wildcat while you see of Kolb, who looked pretty good in spot work last year, has the goods for real to carry the team while you develop the rest of your team. It's not outside the realm of possibility in this senerio for them to also draft a pick, if they used Mcnabb their first round, to move up in the first round and pick up some second day picks as well for added depth. Whatever they do it is important to note they aren't strapping on for a run next year and perhaps not the year after. They are a good, but not great team right now, and there's a pretty wide gap between the Vikings, Saints.... and everyone else in the NFC. There is a group, Eagles, Cowboys, the Packers... that if they continue to improve at the current pace could unseat them as early as next year. The Saints were not as good as they looked in a couple of games... the games they looked bad in also proved that. So it's not a sure bet for them to be the class of the NFC next year despite winning it all this one.
However for the Eagles to unseat them this year, or make an attempt, would mean keeping McNabb picking up a free agent or two.. perhaps along the offensive line (35 sacks on McNabb is too many to let a qb that old and that injury prone to take), and gamble the future almost guaranteed super bowl appearance (I feel) on your younger players being further along that I think they are at this point. If they do this and fall short, they will waste valuable development years, lose some of these young players in free agency and THEN have to break in a brand new qb.. and by the time he's ready you'll have a bunch of aging players around a rookie qb. Not generally a recipe for a super bowl run.
So my path for the Eagles is to develop your new qb NOW. while you have the young core of players that are coming along quite well. Create a dynamic offense to pair with that defense. Either path is a risk, but I feel they young talent exists to build around, it's just not going to be next season whatever they do, so make the moves now to make sure the guy who will be your QB during that time to push is ready. And unfortunately that means giving McNabb his walking papers.
Very well written.
I agree with both sides that you present...but I don't believe Kolb is the Answer. He didn't look awful in his 2 games last year, like almost 800 yards in 2 games or something, but he isn't a 'gunslinger' QB....which is how Philly's offense has always been ran. Kolb showed that hes a conservative, accurate passer in the 5-10 yard range. When he tries big throws....well his 4 picks against the Ravens (yeah its the Ravens) show that he isn't a good deep threat and hasn't got used to the Philly system....which is why I don't think Reid is confident playing him much at all...hence Vick being 2nd string.
I know it sounds corny, not even being from Philly....but Philly needs those emotional players that play with the same passion as the city. Those old school power players to fill the holes. Losing Dawkins was a real shot to the jewls last season, which I think made our defence suspect at times. I know Dawkins wasn't the greatest cover corner, but he was phenominal on the blitz, and philly's a blitz team. You have 2 pro bowl corners (Samuel & Brown) for coverage....Mikell/Jones can't replace Dawkins, and Weapon X's emotion brought the team to live, especially that D. Fuck, he wasn't even terrible at coverage....it wasn't like his lack of coverage skills cost them games, Dawk got as many picks as most other average starting safeties, yet was elite in the run game.
I think defensivly, they need a complete D. When they had their super bowl run, they we never complete (ala this years Vikings). Philly has a undersized d-line.....Trent Cole is easily one of the best ends in the league, but he needs help. Parker has 8 sacks, but there's no real pressure up the middle. They need a big d-lineman to compensate. They also need a serious outside linebacker. WItherspoon and Bradly (LOLB, MLB) are fine enough to start, but the have NO ONE on the other side. They HAVE to asses this to have a shot at a super bowl. Their secondary is elite, but never should have lost Dawk, but they do that the youth (Macho Harris & Mikell) who will grow into solid NFL safeties.
Offensively, you hit the nail on the head. A 'generation gap' if you will, but I think it comes back to the coaching staff. I mean, McDurmat (SP?) took over from the great Jim Johnson (RIP) and did a fantastic job, and they just picked up Miami's special teams coach, which Miami has always been a threat on the ST's. But look at their offensive co-ordinator. Marty Mournwheig.....yes, career record like 3-25 in the NFL. No way this guy should even be near the sidelines of a team that should be considered a NFL elite. Hes an awful play caller, and mixed with Andy reids inability to run the ball, is their problem on offense. Plain and simple.
Their o-line...VERY talented when healthy...maybe even top 3 in the league. Stacy Andrews, Jamal Jackson, Jason Peters last year did VERY well. Shawn Andrews who at one time was considered the future at the o-line position has been fuck all no where, in and out of mental institution and eating up like 12 million a year. If Philly can get the Andrews brothers back....McNabb will have days to throw to his deep threats in Jackson and Maclin. Westbrook can still be effective tho I would look to move him now while he still has some value...maybe for a top end slot WR....and SHady McCoy will grow into a solid running back. Tight ends are very underrated...Brent Celek easily most underrated TE in the league...he has like 10 TD's last year...wasn't even pro bowl mention.
But to sum the O up...they dont run the ball. The try, and if it doesn't work on the first drive, they forget it and make McNabb pass. Fine, hes talented...but when he starts to fuck up, instead of doing the smart thing and starting the run game back up to let McNabb compose himself, they just continue to pass. (Shown in 4 losses last yr against Chargers, Raiders, Cowboys twice) only 8 run attempts all game...and they lost. You have a huge fucking o-line....USE IT. Thats why philly can't compete. Undersized defence, and unbalanced offence.
Offseason needs:
Big D Lineman (Free Agents)
Outside LB (Free Agent...needs experience)
Power RB (Draft)...even with Weaver, it'd be nice.
For the most part I like you analysis of the team as well, as I usually only get to see a couple Eagles games a year, my "snap shot" of that team isn't as complete as with some of the others around the league. I do want to talk a bit more about Kolb though in regards to the Eagles offense. At it's core the Eagles offense is a west-cost style. Dinks and dunks are the name of the game. Assuming that Kolb *is* as good as he looked in those two starts, the Pennington like ballcontrol is exactly what a team that uses screens in place of a running game needs. Good decisions, patience, and accuracy. A deep ball is good, but it's not really what the Eagles offense is designed to do; it's something they really added when TO was around and the year after when their offense was struggling without him. Now that it's recovered and McNabb can deliver that ball they've kept it. But it's a bit like strapping a nuke to a tank. Why?
Ball control through short passes, and you are right, smothering D is what has always been the claim to fame in Philly, and they need a couple more years and a couple more players to turn that corner and put it back into place. But, I trust that team to put together that defense over time... I mean that's what Philly does. What I don't trust them with (from past history) is making the right decisions going forward on offense. I don't believe Reid will ever switch to a run more style... it's just not HIS style and what he's comfortable with as a coach. What the offense is, is what it's going to stay, as long as he's the one under the headphones. If he makes the wrong choices in the next couple of seasons he might well be given his walking papers. After all, he's been "almost there" for a decade, at some point patience wears thin.
That's right folks. It's summer time, and that means in a few more short months the NFL season will start again. I'm going to break things down by division and then make my NFC/AFC Championship Game picks... followed by my Super Bowl winner.
NFC
NFC East: Always a dogfight division these four teams legit just don't like each other... which always makes things interesting and makes it a notoriously tough division to pick. But, I'm going to give it my best shot.
Dallas Cowboys: Get my nod to take the division this year. They've got a pretty tough schedule this year, but I'm going down early on saying that Bryant is going to be the final "it" factor they seemed to be missing on the offensive side of the ball last year. Their D is improving, Romo is improving and major roster changes in the division will keep them the class of the NFC East. Look for a break out year for Dez Bryant (possible rookie of the year opposite an Austin who is going to draw double teams) and Felix Jones who will supplant Marion Barber as the number one back in Dallas if he stays healthy.
New York Giants: You expect consistency from the Giants, not greatness, but consistency. I think that's what you're going to get this year too. On the bubble play off team the whole year. Brandon Jacobs hasn't emerged as the dominator he showed flashes of when they had Ward and Bradshaw in the backfield with him, if he can become that guy is going to determine how far they can go in this division.
Washington Redskins: Adding Mcnabb is enough by itself to get them an 8-8 record, but how far they go after that will be up to a lot of factors. They're changing up scheme again, this time on defense which has lead to a break with Haynesworth. You don't lose a player like that and not notice. They'll improve and surprise some people this year I think as a few of those free agents they've picked up finally start to pay off. But don't expect any celebrating in DC in December.
Philadelphia Eagles Getting rid of McNabb was the right call. A tough call, but the right call. Find out what you've got and what you don't. You weren't a top five team with McNabb, and without him you're going to struggle. He's not going to be there to do any miracles or cover for the mistakes of young offensive players. This team is going back to the past as it looks to the future.... it's going to have to relearn how to win with defense.
NFC West: Long the redheaded stepchild of the NFC it has shown some signs of life... But the Rams are now the Greatest Joke on Turf and the Cardinals are now missing the Miracle Man.
San Fransisco 49ers: Rejoice. This is your year to retake the division 9ers. Don't hold your breath for holding that trophy, but Singletery has proven he DAMN sure knows how to build a defense (as if there was ever any doubt). Ted Ginn Jr, and Crabtree give epic targets to a less that spectacular QB. But if Gore can stay healthy with spelling from Coffee, they could make a deep play off run and play spoiler to a lot of people.
Arizona Cardinals: The Cards still have the core of a very good team. Unfortunately they still don't have a top flight offensive line and now they've got a qb that doesn't get the ball off as famously fast as Warner. How well Lienhart has learned is going to be very quickly apparent in October when they go TO San Diego and then get the Saints at home. How they play in those games is going to tell us if Matt has the stuff or if they're shopping for a new qb in the offseason. If he craps out, don't be surprised to see Anderson under center after the bye week.
Seattle Seahawks: A team many feel is going to give one last gasp, is I think doomed for early disappointment. A brutal opening schedule has them playing San Fran in week one (where d's are notoriously tough), then going off to Denver and then back home for San Diego. Then they are at Saint Louis before their early bye and then get cracked back down to earth by the Chicago D right after. Don't buy the hype. This team is held together with scotch tape and bubble gum.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams have a pretty weak opening schedule all things considered. But Sam Bradford isn't the answer here as he's not really an upgrade from what they had before.... maybe he will be one day, but not for three-five seasons. They need help up front before they can ever hope to develop a rookie qb... especially one who has an injury bullseye on him. Starting on Oct 17 they play Chargers, Tampa, Panthers, 9ers right after the other... if Bradford lives through those four weeks, he's going to wish he could give back some of that draft money to go to another team.
Up Next: the rest of the NFC and my NFC Champion.
NFC North This could be the closest division in the NFL this year, and expect a neck and neck dogfight for the division champion right to the very end. It could well be that the eventual winner is who can stay healthy and that we have three play off teams from this division this year.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers might be the best qb to follow a hall of fame QB since Steve Young got that monkey off his back. This guy's numbers are INSANE and he keeps getting better. Another year to stiffen that d, and I think this year it starts to pay off. They take it and take their place in the elite teams in the NFC.
Minnesota Vikings: To Farve or not to Farve. If it comes back, they'll do well... but still will be overtaken by the Packers this year. If he ultimately doesn't or starts showing his age finally... kaboom... this team implodes. I expect Farve back, but the Vikings are going to have tough questions to answer when they fall short early in the playoffs.
Chicago Bears: I expect improvement from the Bears... especially on the offensive side of the ball. I think this is a Defense that has a chip on it's shoulder too. You put that together and I expect them to come out mean, dirty, and nasty. And that's how I like my Bears to play. Cutler has knocks on him, we all know them.. but he's an emotional guy who could provide the spark late in the year to make this this seasons dangerous "wildcard" team.
Detroit Lions: It's Detroit... isn't that really enough said? Sure they've improved a little bit over the last couple years... but even in improving they've fallen farther behind the other teams in their own division. Add to that games with the Patriots, Cowboys, Jets, and Giants... if you're a Detroit fan you might not want to watch.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: How can you put anyone else on top of this division this year? I'm not sure if they were ever as good as they looked at certain points in the season, but ultimately that doesn't matter. They're still a cut above the other teams in their division and that gives them another great shot at homefield advantage.
Atlanta Falcons: Still have the core of their team intact. They had a speed bump or two last year, didn't play up to the promise. But I think they're going to turn it around. Another on the bubble play off team. It's going to rest on the shoulders of Ryan late. But they are helped by a soft schedule.(Sure they play pitsburg.... but a Big Ben-less Pitt) And they should finish the last seven games 5-2, and if they can manage an upset win over the Saints or Packers in that run, they could just surprise everybody.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I like the Bucs this year. They are young and plucky and on the rise. I don't like them to make a playoff run, but they could well be a team that decides some of the division winners with upset wins. They're on the right track I think, and I think we'll see some glimpses of the future from this this year as they claw their way back into things.
Carolina Panthers: Can anyone tell me a thing these guys have done to get better in this off-season? I can't see it. My pick for the number one pick in the 2011 Draft?... the Panthers.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
To say it's going to be a crazy season... is probably a given. But eventually we're going to have two teams left standing.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Expect a shoot out gun slinging showdown here. In the end I'm going for the upset, Green Bay will beat the Saints at home and return to the Super Bowl (without Farve).
Up next: AFC
The AFC:
AFC EAST: Remember when the Bills were good and the Colts and Patriots played what was later dubbed the blooper bowl? I do. As much as I would love to say that the Bills were making a comeback... I can't. This is going to be a tough division this year though. Dophins are tough, and the Wildcat is still giving d's problems. The Jets Defense might have come one quarter away from joining the pantheon of "best defenses in NFL history" and the Pats seem to be sliding. This division will also host my pick for the game of the Year. December 6, in Foxboro, Jets at Patriots, will decide the division and the third seed in the playoffs.
New York Jets I'm a believer baby! I thought Rex Ryan was a total blow hard last year.. but it worked. This team is coming off a monster off season... LT... Santonio Holms... and boy that defense is scary. I can't say enough about how excited about these guys I am, it's a team resurrected from decade after decade of football mediocrity. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!
New England Patriots: Brady's back, but many qbs have struggled to come back "fully" after knee injuries. It's not about his arm.. it's about his head and if he's going to have lost a step of mobility in the pocket. He's going to be without Wes Welker for a while, and Randy Moss isn't a guy that strikes terror into defensive coordinators like he used too, and that defense hasn't been in top form since Bill let his ego let one too many guys walk out the door rather than open the checkbook. Age, retirements, and free agency has chipped away at them the way it did the 9ers and the Cowboys of the 90's. Do they have one more run in them? Not in the AFC, the teams are too good.
Miami Dolphins: I'd love to pick the Dolphins, but they have an epically brutal schedule this year that I just can't see them having a realistic chance of making the playoff cut. I think like the Redskins and Bucs though, that they have the shot late in the year to decisively decide a few close divisional races.
Buffalo Bills *sigh* Yeah, I got nothing. It seem like management of this team doesn't really care if they win anymore and it shows in personnel decisions.
AFC West: Another division of strong rivalries. They make for great history, but sometimes for lousy picks.
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are the team of forever "next year." They do great, win games, get high play off seeds, and then just can't get the job done when it counts the most. That said they'll be there in December yet again, but the loss of LT is about more than on the field. They guy was a locker room leader for that team and they'll feel his loss.
Denver Broncos: I'm done waiting for Kyle Orton to fold. I'm done doubting the guy. Sportscasters have been selling his guy short for years and all he does is play smart football and win. So why would I pick against him? But at the end of the day I don't like how they match up with the top AFC teams, week three against the Colts and six against the Jets is going to tell us what this team is made of, and if they're going to try to pull an upset at playoff time.
Kansas City Chiefs: I think the Chiefs are trying to do Daniel Snider on the cheep. They couldn't grow a qb at home... so they went out and got Matt Castle.. the running game needed a second guy.. enter Thomas Jones. That said, the threat of Jones in the backfield could help keep Castle on his feet behind a suspect offensive line, and I'm picking the Chiefs to be a team on the bubble late in the year. Late November- the end of the season is very easy for them schedule wise with the only top teams they're going to face being the Chargers. If they can pull upsets on the Titans and Broncos late, they could well shake up the playoff picture and sneak in themselves with a late season surge.
Oakland Raiders: Is it possible for us to vote a team to Arena Football? Please?
Coming up: The rest of the AFC. AFC Championship game. And my superbowl picks.
AFC North: Could be a really tight four way race this year and could end up sending three teams to the playoffs if things go right. More likely however, in the AFC it'll just be two.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Yeah, I know, no Big Ben. But this is still a great all around football team that will have to find it's roots again with smash mouth football. I think they'll do it; I've seen too much out of this organization that expects greatness to pick against them in a tight divisional race.
Baltimore Ravens: Could just have the most brutal schedule of any team this season. It's insane. But I think this team is built to weather that storm and make it into the playoffs despite it, and fighting that war all season is going to leave them ready for anything.
Cleveland Browns: Jake Delhomme is your answer? Really? Just when it looked like the Browns were on the right path over the last couple seasons they go and do something like this. Hell maybe it'll work out, but the guy couldn't get it done with Carolina, he's damn sure not going to get it done against the Steelers and Ravens in December.
Cincinnati Bengals: Every year people say "this is the year the Bengals start playing up to their talent" they never do. My vote is that this is the year the wheels come totally off. It's time to tear apart that team and start over, they are dysfunctional from the coach down.
AFC SOUTH For a division with the Colts in it, it's always home to some surprisingly good games. I don't expect anything different this year.
Indianapolis Colts: Over the last decade this is the winningest team.... in the history of the NFL. I know the whole thing about the Super Bowl loser struggling, but I think Manning is going to come out slinging and now he's got another weapon on Gonzales healthy. They will establish themselves early as the class of the AFC and never look back. Key time period for the Colts is November 19- December 19, They go to the Patriots, Dallas and Chargers at Home, to Tennessee and then get the Jags at home, a team they historically have struggles with. They come out of that stretch 3-2 or 4-1 possibly earning their first loss of the season along the way.
Tennessee Titans: They've got age problems on Defense and nothing much that scares people in the passing game. But they've got Vince Young back in rookie of the year form, and Chris Johnson in the backfield striking terror in the hearts of all. Teams will scheme against Johnson, they don't have a choice, and Vince will wrack up 500-800 yards on the ground himself and 2500 through the air goal line dancing the Titans back into the playoffs.
Houston Texans: They'll break even. The difference between 9-7 and 7-9 is narrow but sometimes meaningful. They've proven they can draft.. and they've proven they can add the right vets to improve their football team, but I still question their offensive line. And until they can fix that they're going to struggle against the powerful pass rushes they're going up against in the AFC, and be unable to run the ball enough to slow it down.
Jacksonville Jaguars: I'm not really sure what's going on in Jacksonville. The last four seasons seem to have been a process of getting rid of most of the players who made them great, and they are still struggling to put together a consistent group of wide receivers for Gerard. They're in for a rough season and may have a new head coach by the end of it.
AFC Championship Game:
Jets at Indianapolis. In a repeat of last year these two teams will go at it again with the Colts putting a stamp of finality on a plucky young Jets team late in the 4th. There will be writing on the wall though, the Jets are on the way up and the Colts only have a couple more seasons of opportunity before the wheels start to come off.
SUPERBOWL!!
Colts vs Packers.
Are you feeling this game? It could be 40-40 at halftime. It's going to put in mind some of the great young up and coming vs future all of famer qb battles of old... the Bledsoe vs Marino battles come to mind. Either way this is going to be an entertaining superbowl, but not good to watch if you're faint of heart.
Super Bowl MVP: Peyton Manning
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Dez Bryant
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jason Pierre-Paul
NFL MVP: Drew Brees
Upset of the Year: December 16th. 49ers at San Diego. The 9ers will rise up and beat the Chargers settling the first seed in the AFC playoffs in the Colts favor.
Got some balls man... some wild picking there..
A few I disagree with:
AFC..... Bengals last? They swept the division last year, 6-0, and have the same team coming back, except with some better additions. The Browns... suck. Pitt without Big Ben will struggle not to start 0-6, and the Ravens added a top WR, but little else. I still see the Bengals taking the division.
NFC... Vikings over Packers... IF Favre comes back. The Vikes D is just too tough, and both games they pushed GB's line all over the place, and they'll do it again. Without Favre, they are 10-6 team at best.
And I don't see anyone BUT the Jets making the SB in the AFC this year. They've just added too much to an already good team. You're giving LT a solid ass line to run behind, and while he's not LT of 04-05, he's still a top 10 RB. And Braylon Edwards certainly isn't a great #1, but he's not that anymore with the addition they made. And the really bolstered that defense. LT's presence will take pressure of Sanchez and the Jets got a DAMN GOOD football team that's looking at 14-2, 13-3 type season.
And I think the Browns may be worse than Carolina this year. Dropping both their QB's for... Delhomme?? I can't wrap my mind around that. Delhomme isn't the QB that went to the SB years ago... he's lost his mojo. And to boot, there are no strong WR options for him to throw too even. The Browns this year I really think will be the skunk of the leage, losing to anyone and everyone, including the abysmal Rams, Lions and Bucs. (damn city can't get a break in any sport, huh)
Hey man, go big or go home with picks.
I could be wrong... but yeah, the Bengals I do see falling apart this year, just too much wrong in that franchise to give them a shot at making a run. Maybe they do top the Browns, but the Browns are used to playing without a great QB they've been doing it.. well.. for almost ever and still seem to put a little something together late to surprise people. Ultimately even in Delohme sucks he's not any worse than what they had before they brought him in... so it's really a way for them to get out form under the sub par QB controversy while they look for another young guy to develop. What it comes down to ultimately for me is Flacco having had another year to develop... and they've added Boldin to a receiver group that's full of several good veteran guys. Their D returned to form last year in the playoffs shoving people around and I think they're going to come out early in the year the same way. As i mentioned they have one of the most brutal schedules I've ever seen, but if they can survive it... they're going to be more ready for playoff football... than anyone else in the league. That and Pitt is what ultimately is going to doom Cinci when their off the field crap bubbles to the surface again.
As for the Jets.. they're good, I'll give you that. But it wasn't that long ago that people were writing them OUT of the play offs. It's one thing to play above yourself for four or five games and shock the league. Now they have to prove they can do it for 16 straight games overcoming the foibles along the way from their younger players and deal with the pressure of being a team that everyone now KNOWS is good and will prepare for accordingly.
As for Pitt I'd be shocked if they came out of those games w/o Ben less than 4-2. Possibly 3-3. The games are Atlanta, @Tennessee, @Tampa Bay, then Baltimore and Cleveland at Home. The Steelers have three veteran QBs with play off experience on their bench they're not losing much from a Big Ben who hasn't been the same guy since that motorcycle wreck and his legal problems began. I'm not sure the guy is mentally tough. I think it's getting to him. They still have good running backs and a top five defense... and early in the year the defenses always seem to have the advantage anyway.
You knew it had to happen eventually. Love or hate the Cowboys, in the early to mid 90's they simply were the class of the NFL. So it was with a hint of expectation and no little feeling that it was right and proper that when Emmitt Smith was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame he spent as much time talking about his former team mates as he did about his own on the field accomplishments. Aikman, Irvin, and Smith will always be linked and it's a testament to how good they really were together that to this day teams still look for their own versions of the triplets when rebuilding a team. Sure it might seem like common sense that you need a good running back, quarterback, and receiver to make your offense run but, with the exception of the quarter back, until then they were never really expected to be the emotional driving force behind a teams success and symbols of the team at large.
Say what you want about legacies, or shiftiness, or pure running power.... the level of productivity this guy displayed over the length of time he displayed it will probably never be duplicated by another back ever; that era seems to simply be over as once again teams are increasingly returning to a two or three back set as powerhouses workhorses burn out after a few great seasons. When once asked who he saw among the up and commers who might be a threat to his record... Smith came up with only one name a few years back, Laidanian Tomlinson who has since suffered a noticeable lack of production.
So it's been debated time and time again where exactly you would rank the great running backs of all time. Indeed the most difficult part is figuring out the proper mode of comparison. Many who argue for Smith's inclusion among the greats, rightly point to his breaking the lifetime rushing record and smashing Jim Browns touchdown record to ribbons. But that's not what I'll remember the most. What I'll remember is how hard he ran, the look his eyes when the camera caught it. How linebackers used to say he was so hard to bring down because he used his body motion at perfect moments so he was impossible to lay a solid hit on. I'll remember his toughness, no matter how beat up, banged up he was they could put the ball into his hands knowing they were only going on way: forward.
In some ways Smith is so hard to rank among his peers because he came into the game two decades too late. He was a throw back to the days of running backs who toiled away endlessly night after night in the mud and muck against the Steel Curtain, the Purple People Eaters, and the Doomsday Defense. He was a man outside of his time, but for the time he was with us he demonstrated exactly what is wrong with the new breed of running backs like Reggie Bush, or an even more established guy like Michael Westbrook. Simply put the age of the pure runner going nose to nose with the defense between the tackles is coming to a close. Screen passes, outside running and running back by committee have replaced the bone on bone grind down of a defense until it was powerless to stop you offensively. That is what football used to be about.
So rank your greats where you want them. Think what you will about his career or if he tried to hang around too long. Just remember: he was one of a kind and we'll probably never see his like again in uniform on Sunday's. Congrats number 22, and thanks for the memories.
Well Bryan,
It's amazing how much can change in such a short amount of time. As a Patriots fan, I obviously focused mostly on your thoughts on the AFC East. I will admit, the Jets were a far better team than I expected them to be, but now it looks like Darrelle Revis will be sitting on the sidelines for at least a few games while Wes Welker will most likely be on the field the first Patriots regular season game.
I'll admit, Brady's head does worry me and not just because of the knee but also he has so much other shit going on in his life. I'm not going to say he needed to ignore his wife and kids for football, but, Bill Belichick is.
This season, Brady has expectations set on him again, last season everyone gave him a pass because of his knee, there is no pass this year for Brady, with Welker coming back, Randy Moss only being 33 years old, and Torry Holt being a better option that Joey Galloway, I have a feeling that Brady is going to respond.
Belichick let his ego get the best of him with the defense, but now, they've had a full year together as the current squad and it's time for Jerod Mayo to finally step up and be the number one defensive threat.
With experience the defense will improve, and with Brady having something to prove again, he'll work his ass off.
I don't want to say that the Jets were just a flash in the pan, but their defense cannot carry them without Darrelle Revis and LT is old as all hell on the offensive side. The key for the Jets is Mark Sanchez, without him, the Jets wont do a damn thing...
Great breakdowns Bryan, I like them, but this is sports, it has to be riddled with debate at all times!
That's very true Mark, I still don't know if Revis by himself is enough to swing the division back to the Pats, but I think it does shake up the play off picture quite a bit in the long run, and yes give the Pats another window. As you mentioned Moss, I'm concerned about the overall age of their receivers... I mean where are their young budding offensive threats?.... the ones not coming off serious injury that is. Perhaps I'm uninformed on that score so if you do know please tell me who to keep an eye on.
Welker being back is no doubt great for the Pats.. if he hasn't come back too soon and in week one something snaps again... we'll see what happens we can only hope that he and Brady really are totally back, but I'm not ready to pick them to win the whole thing until they prove it to me. ;)
I'm looking for a new Payne Filled Outlook topic and open to suggestions. Got any in depth stuff you'd liked looked into or your favorite team gone over with a fine toothed comb like i've done a with a few others here? Let me know.
I haven't had a chance to see much NFL since I was in America at the end of 2008 so I was wondering if you could do a piece on my beloved Dolphins and their prospects.
sure be happy too. Working on it now... I'll try to get that up sometime this weekend.
Miami Dolphins: Greatness Interrupted
So, I decided upon reflection to wait until I saw the Dolphin's Jets game Sunday Night before I delved into this team. As I was watching it I couldn't help but thinking to myself that this was a team that could compete with anybody. The trouble is they're not in a division with anybody... and therein lies the problem. From the moment Chad Pennington stepped into a Dolphins uniform the team really was different. They played harder, better, the defense really came together too. For years they've been one of the "almost there" teams that could play with anybody... the trouble is they didn't have to beat just anybody.... They're in a division with the Patriots and the wunderkind that are the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS.
That played out again tonight. They played well and had every shot to win it, but couldn't quite pull it off. Now lets talk about why.
First off if they were in almost any other division in football they'd be a favorite in their division almost every year with the line up they have now which brings me to my next point. Josh McDaniels is an idiot! Did you see Brandon Marshall? The guy is a BEAST. He should have crawled on his hands and knees to get him back and instead he trades away a probowl QB AND a guy in Marshall that's probably going to end up in the hall of fame if he keeps playing like that for a few more seasons. Receiver has always been a weak spot for the Dolphins as far back as I can remember... even in the days of Dan Marino they always said "if he only had a top ten receiver..." Well Marino is long gone, but they've finally got that top receiver now it's down to Chad Henne to do something with it.
The Dolphins success really depends upon three things... none of which they can really control. IF the Pats continue to lose ground (and they are the wheels are coming off that buss sorry Bean Town) it won't be long until Miami is right there. The trouble is "right there" might still land them in third place in their own division... but they'll have a window. Ronnie Brown has to stay healthy, which is something he seems to have had problems with playing only ONE 16 game season in his NFL career. I've got bad news... he's 28 entering the last couple years of a running back's "prime" the time when the start to decline if not be replaced by a younger pair of legs. Which means if he doesn't stay healthy this year... he's pretty much done as a feature back and becomes a third down back used for wildcat almost exclusively. Likely the next guy won't have his talent but he'll be able to stay on his feet for the whole season so they can actually game plan around him.
75.2 No, that's not the temperature outside, that's Chad Henne's QB rating for the 2009 season.
12 to 14. Not the score of Sunday Night by half, Henne's TD to INT ratio last year.
451 Number of times he threw the ball. Among starter QB's last season only Vince Young, Marc Bulger, Brady Quin, Mark Sanchez, and Mathew Staford threw less.
So you've got a QB who performs in the bottom third of starting QBs why are you even throwing the ball that much? Brown is supposed to be your stud running back.. Ricky Williams is supposed to be ageless and when hes' gotten playing time proves to be... and your defense is supposed to be top shelf. Why aren't they grinding out the clock playing a Raven's of the Trent Dilfer era football?
Because they're playing against some of the best QBs and defenses in the league. They always play from behind. Because the strength of their team, their defense, let the Jets... not a team known for their offense mind... put up 31 points.
Had Pennington not hurt his shoulder again I don't have a doubt this team would be in the playoffs this year, but if they succeed from here is going to depend on the development of Chad Henne and the health of Ronnie Brown. But also on that defense. If the Jets put up 31 what are the Saints or the Colts going to put up this season on these guys? It's a fair question to ask.
I think Miami is where they were two years ago. Still on the bubble and looking for an answer. And that question is?... Chad Henne... Can you make me believe?
So....after Sam Bradford ending up starting the 1st game of the year for the Rams, and losing the first 2 games to miserable teams by only 6 points, and then thumping the Skins...can we get a reflection on the Rams now?
Sure Ash. Let me do a little checking around, I don't get the opportunity to see many Rams games, so I need to research them a bit more than just watching highlights.
Still researching Payne?