'NFL: A Payne Filled Outlook'

[Cory]

Id like to hear your thoughts on what Philly need to do to win a super bowl

[Bryan Payne]

Oh my, request number one.  No fears my friend, a "how too" guide to get over that hump for Philly coming up.

[Bryan Payne]

Eagles: Two Roads Diverged in  Wood

The Eagles have two main options on the road to the Super Bowl, the trouble is neither path is a sure bet and littered with the careers of coaches who took the path.  If they go the wrong way Andy Reid's career will become just another causality.  First let's debunk one thing:  Donovan McNabb is not now, nor has he ever been the problem.  He has given the Eagles nothing but good leadership, steady play, and constancy over the last ten years of his career.  His numbers this year are great, and overall the team played well.  Over the last several years the Eagles have gotten younger, a good thing, and they've added depth and talent at receiver and running back which the offense has needed for MOST of that same decade.  My biggest wonder is why they didn't do this years ago, but there you have it.

The problem here is that much of the team IS still developing and emerging talent, promising...  but continuing on this path is probably going to take them a couple more years for it all to come together.  And that is what you're going to gamble on if you keep McNabb at this point that he's going to STILL be a good Quarterback then.  The Eagles have quietly been in a rebuilding mode the last couple of years replacing the players that helped them on their last failed attempt to bring home the ring.  They didn't throw out the baby with the bathwater though, they've done it piece by piece and so remained competitive the last several seasons even while they were busy dumping vets close to the end and replacing them part by part through some rather good drafting of late. (Perhaps underrated drafts at the time). 

That being the case my way forward is going to jerk some heads.  Trade McNabb now; in the uncapped year, while he still has some value left to a struggling franchise and get the last pieces of the puzzle.  Next season you can add more wildcat while you see of Kolb, who looked pretty good in spot work last year, has the goods for real to carry the team while you develop the rest of your team.  It's not outside the realm of possibility in this senerio for them to also draft a pick, if they used Mcnabb their first round, to move up in the first round and pick up some second day picks as well for added depth.  Whatever they do it is important to note they aren't strapping on for a run next year and perhaps not the year after.  They are a good, but not great team right now, and there's a pretty wide gap between the Vikings, Saints.... and everyone else in the NFC.   There is a group, Eagles, Cowboys, the Packers... that if they continue to improve at the current pace could unseat them as early as next year.  The Saints were not as good as they looked in a couple of games... the games they looked bad in also proved that.  So it's not a sure bet for them to be the class of the NFC next year despite winning it all this one. 

However for the Eagles to unseat them this year, or make an attempt, would mean keeping McNabb picking up a free agent or two.. perhaps along the offensive line (35 sacks on McNabb is too many to let a qb that old and that injury prone to take), and gamble the future almost guaranteed super bowl appearance (I feel) on your younger players being further along that I think they are at this point.    If they do this and fall short, they will waste valuable development years, lose some of these young players in free agency and THEN have to break in a brand new qb..  and by the time he's ready you'll have a bunch of aging players around a rookie qb.  Not generally a recipe for a super bowl run. 

So my path for the Eagles is to develop your new qb NOW.  while you have the young core of players that are coming along quite well.  Create a dynamic offense to pair with that defense.  Either path is a risk, but I feel they young talent exists to build around, it's just not going to be next season whatever they do, so make the moves now to make sure the guy who will be your QB during that time to push is ready.  And unfortunately that means giving McNabb his walking papers.

[Cory]

Very well written.

I agree with both sides that you present...but I don't believe Kolb is the Answer. He didn't look awful in his 2 games last year, like almost 800 yards in 2 games or something, but he isn't a 'gunslinger' QB....which is how Philly's offense has always been ran. Kolb showed that hes a conservative, accurate passer in the 5-10 yard range. When he tries big throws....well his 4 picks against the Ravens (yeah its the Ravens) show that he isn't a good deep threat and hasn't got used to the Philly system....which is why I don't think Reid is confident playing him much at all...hence Vick being 2nd string.

I know it sounds corny, not even being from Philly....but Philly needs those emotional players that play with the same passion as the city. Those old school power players to fill the holes. Losing Dawkins was a real shot to the jewls last season, which I think made our defence suspect at times. I know Dawkins wasn't the greatest cover corner, but he was phenominal on the blitz, and philly's a blitz team. You have 2 pro bowl corners (Samuel & Brown) for coverage....Mikell/Jones can't replace Dawkins, and Weapon X's emotion brought the team to live, especially that D. Fuck, he wasn't even terrible at coverage....it wasn't like his lack of coverage skills cost them games, Dawk got as many picks as most other average starting safeties, yet was elite in the run game.

I think defensivly, they need a complete D. When they had their super bowl run, they we never complete (ala this years Vikings). Philly has a undersized d-line.....Trent Cole is easily one of the best ends in the league, but he needs help. Parker has 8 sacks, but there's no real pressure up the middle. They need a big d-lineman to compensate. They also need a serious outside linebacker. WItherspoon and Bradly (LOLB, MLB) are fine enough to start, but the have NO ONE on the other side. They HAVE to asses this to have a shot at a super bowl. Their secondary is elite, but never should have lost Dawk, but they do that the youth (Macho Harris & Mikell) who will grow into solid NFL safeties.

Offensively, you hit the nail on the head. A 'generation gap' if you will, but I think it comes back to the coaching staff. I mean, McDurmat (SP?) took over from the great Jim Johnson (RIP) and did a fantastic job, and they just picked up Miami's special teams coach, which Miami has always been a threat on the ST's. But look at their offensive co-ordinator. Marty Mournwheig.....yes, career record like 3-25 in the NFL. No way this guy should even be near the sidelines of a team that should be considered a NFL elite. Hes an awful play caller, and mixed with Andy reids inability to run the ball, is their problem on offense. Plain and simple.

Their o-line...VERY talented when healthy...maybe even top 3 in the league. Stacy Andrews, Jamal Jackson, Jason Peters last year did VERY well. Shawn Andrews who at one time was considered the future at the o-line position has been fuck all no where, in and out of mental institution and eating up like 12 million a year. If Philly can get the Andrews brothers back....McNabb will have days to throw to his deep threats in Jackson and Maclin. Westbrook can still be effective tho I would look to move him now while he still has some value...maybe for a top end slot WR....and SHady McCoy will grow into a solid running back. Tight ends are very underrated...Brent Celek easily most underrated TE in the league...he has like 10 TD's last year...wasn't even pro bowl mention.

But to sum the O up...they dont run the ball. The try, and if it doesn't work on the first drive, they forget it and make McNabb pass. Fine, hes talented...but when he starts to fuck up, instead of doing the smart thing and starting the run game back up to let McNabb compose himself, they just continue to pass. (Shown in 4 losses last yr against Chargers, Raiders, Cowboys twice) only 8 run attempts all game...and they lost. You have a huge fucking o-line....USE IT. Thats why philly can't compete. Undersized defence, and unbalanced offence.

Offseason needs:
Big D Lineman (Free Agents)
Outside LB (Free Agent...needs experience)
Power RB (Draft)...even with Weaver, it'd be nice.

[Bryan Payne]

For the most part I like you analysis of the team as well, as I usually only get to see a couple Eagles games a year, my "snap shot" of that team isn't as complete as with some of the others around the league.  I do want to talk a bit more about Kolb though in regards to the Eagles offense.  At it's core the Eagles offense is a west-cost style.  Dinks and dunks are the name of the game.  Assuming that Kolb *is* as good as he looked in those two starts, the Pennington like ballcontrol is exactly what a team that uses screens in place of a running game needs.  Good decisions, patience, and accuracy.  A deep ball is good, but it's not really what the Eagles offense is designed to do; it's something they really added when TO was around and the year after when their offense was struggling without him.  Now that it's recovered and McNabb can deliver that ball they've kept it.  But it's a bit like strapping a nuke to a tank.  Why?   

Ball control through short passes, and you are right, smothering D is what has always been the claim to fame in Philly, and they need a couple more years and a couple more players to turn that corner and put it back into place.  But, I trust that team to put together that defense over time... I mean that's what Philly does.  What I don't trust them with (from past history) is making the right decisions going forward on offense.  I don't believe Reid will ever switch to a run more style... it's just not HIS style and what he's comfortable with as a coach.  What the offense is, is what it's going to stay, as long as he's the one under the headphones.  If he makes the wrong choices in the next couple of seasons he might well be given his walking papers.  After all, he's been "almost there" for a decade, at some point patience wears thin.

[Bryan Payne]

That's right folks.  It's summer time, and that means in a few more short months the NFL season will start again.  I'm going to break things down by division and then make my NFC/AFC Championship Game picks... followed by my Super Bowl winner.   


NFC

NFC East:   Always a dogfight division these four teams legit just don't like each other... which always makes things interesting and makes it a notoriously tough division to pick.  But, I'm going to give it my best shot.

Dallas Cowboys:  Get my nod to take the division this year.  They've got a pretty tough schedule this year, but I'm going down early on saying that Bryant is going to be the final "it" factor they seemed to be missing on the offensive side of the ball last year.  Their D is improving, Romo is improving  and major roster changes in the division will keep them the class of the NFC East.  Look for a break out year for Dez Bryant (possible rookie of the year opposite an Austin who is going to draw double teams) and Felix Jones who will supplant Marion Barber as the number one back in Dallas if he stays healthy.

New York Giants:  You expect consistency from the Giants, not greatness, but consistency.  I think that's what you're going to get this year too.  On the bubble play off team the whole year.  Brandon Jacobs hasn't emerged as the dominator he showed flashes of when they had Ward and Bradshaw in the backfield with him, if he can become that guy is going to determine how far they can go in this division. 

Washington Redskins:  Adding Mcnabb is enough by itself to get them an 8-8 record, but how far they go after that will be up to a lot of factors.  They're changing up scheme again, this time on defense which has lead to a break with Haynesworth.  You don't lose a player like that and not notice.  They'll improve and surprise some people this year I think as a few of those free agents they've picked up finally start to pay off.  But don't expect any celebrating in DC in December.

Philadelphia Eagles  Getting rid of McNabb was the right call.  A tough call, but the right call.  Find out what you've got and what you don't.  You weren't a top five team with McNabb, and without him you're going to struggle.  He's not going to be there to do any miracles or cover for the mistakes of young offensive players.  This team is going back to the past as it looks to the future.... it's going to have to relearn how to win with defense.



NFC West:  Long the redheaded stepchild of the NFC it has shown some signs of life... But the Rams are now the Greatest Joke on Turf and the Cardinals are  now missing the Miracle Man.


San Fransisco 49ers:  Rejoice.  This is your year to retake the division 9ers.  Don't hold your breath for holding that trophy, but Singletery has proven he DAMN sure knows how to build a defense (as if there was ever any doubt).  Ted Ginn Jr, and Crabtree give epic targets to a less that spectacular QB.  But if Gore can stay healthy with spelling from Coffee, they could make a deep play off run and play spoiler to a lot of people.

Arizona Cardinals:  The Cards still have the core of a very good team.  Unfortunately they still don't have a top flight offensive line and now they've got a qb that doesn't get the ball off as famously fast as Warner.  How well Lienhart has learned is going to be very quickly apparent in October when they go TO San Diego and then get the Saints at home.  How they play in those games is going to tell us if Matt has the stuff or if they're shopping for a new qb in the offseason.  If he craps out, don't be surprised to see Anderson under center after the bye week.

Seattle Seahawks:  A team many feel is going to give one last gasp, is I think doomed for early disappointment.  A brutal opening schedule has them playing San Fran in week one (where d's are notoriously tough), then going off to Denver and then back home for San Diego.  Then they are at Saint Louis before their early bye and then get cracked back down to earth by the Chicago D right after.  Don't buy the hype.  This team is held together with scotch tape and bubble gum.

St. Louis Rams:  The Rams have a pretty weak opening schedule all things considered.  But Sam Bradford isn't the answer here as he's not really an upgrade from what they had before.... maybe he will be one day, but not for three-five seasons. They need help up front before they can ever hope to develop a rookie qb... especially one who has an injury bullseye on him.  Starting on Oct 17 they play Chargers, Tampa, Panthers, 9ers right after the other...  if Bradford lives through those four weeks, he's going to wish he could give back some of that draft money to go to another team.


Up Next: the rest of the NFC and my NFC Champion.

[Bryan Payne]

NFC North  This could be the closest division in the NFL this year, and expect a neck and neck dogfight for the division champion right to the very end.    It could well be that the eventual winner is who can stay healthy and that we have three play off teams from this division this year.

Green Bay Packers:   Aaron Rodgers might be the best qb to follow a hall of fame QB since Steve Young got that monkey off his back.   This guy's numbers are INSANE and he keeps getting better.  Another year to stiffen that d, and I think this year it starts to pay off.  They take it and take their place in the elite teams in the NFC.

Minnesota Vikings:  To Farve or not to Farve.  If it comes back, they'll do well... but still will be overtaken by the Packers this year.  If he ultimately doesn't or  starts showing his age finally...  kaboom... this team implodes.  I expect Farve back, but the Vikings are going to have tough questions to answer when they fall short early in the playoffs.

Chicago Bears:   I expect improvement from the Bears... especially on the offensive side of the ball.  I think this is a Defense that has a chip on it's shoulder too.  You put that together and I expect them to come out mean, dirty, and nasty.  And that's how I like my Bears to play.  Cutler has knocks on him, we all know them.. but he's an emotional guy who could provide the spark late in the year to make this this seasons dangerous "wildcard" team.

Detroit Lions:   It's Detroit... isn't that really enough said?  Sure they've  improved a little bit over the last  couple years... but even in improving they've fallen farther behind the other teams in their own division.  Add to that games with the Patriots, Cowboys, Jets, and Giants...  if you're a Detroit  fan you might not want to watch.


NFC South

New Orleans Saints:  How can you put anyone else on top of this division this year?  I'm not sure if they were ever as good as  they looked at certain points in the season, but ultimately that doesn't matter.  They're still a cut above the other teams in their division and that gives them another great shot at homefield advantage.

Atlanta Falcons:  Still have the core of their team  intact.  They had a speed bump or two last year, didn't play up to the promise.  But I think they're going to turn it around.  Another on the bubble play off team.  It's going to rest on the shoulders of Ryan late.  But they are helped by a soft schedule.(Sure they play pitsburg.... but a Big Ben-less Pitt)  And they should finish the last seven games 5-2, and if they can manage an upset win over the Saints or Packers in that run, they could just surprise everybody. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  I like the Bucs this year.  They are young and plucky and on the rise.  I don't like them to make a playoff run, but they could well be a team that decides some of the division winners with upset wins.  They're on the right track I think, and I think we'll see some glimpses of the future  from  this this year as they claw their way back into things.

Carolina Panthers:  Can anyone tell me a thing these guys have done to get better in this off-season?  I can't see it.  My pick for the number one pick in the 2011 Draft?... the Panthers.



NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

To say it's going to be a crazy season... is probably a given.  But eventually we're going to  have two teams left standing.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

Expect a shoot out gun slinging showdown here.  In the end I'm going for the upset, Green Bay will beat the Saints at home and return to the Super Bowl (without Farve).


Up next:  AFC

[Bryan Payne]

The AFC:


AFC EAST:   Remember when the Bills were good and the Colts and Patriots played what was later dubbed the blooper bowl?  I do.  As much as I would love to say that the Bills were making a comeback... I can't.   This is going to be a tough division this year though.  Dophins are tough, and the Wildcat is still giving d's problems.  The Jets Defense might have come one quarter away from joining the pantheon of "best defenses in NFL history"  and the Pats seem to be sliding.  This division will also host my pick for the game of the Year.  December 6, in Foxboro, Jets at Patriots, will decide the division and the third seed in the playoffs.

New York Jets  I'm a believer baby!  I thought Rex Ryan was a total blow hard last year.. but it worked.  This team is coming off a monster off season... LT... Santonio Holms... and boy that defense is scary.  I can't say enough about how excited about these guys I am, it's a team resurrected from decade after decade of football mediocrity. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!

New England Patriots:  Brady's back, but many qbs have struggled to come back "fully" after knee injuries.  It's not about his arm.. it's about his head and if he's going to have lost a step of mobility in the pocket.  He's going to be without Wes Welker for a while, and Randy Moss isn't a guy that strikes terror into defensive coordinators like he used too, and that defense hasn't been in top form since Bill let his ego let one too many guys walk out the door rather than open the checkbook.  Age, retirements, and free agency has chipped away at them the way it did the 9ers and the Cowboys of the 90's. Do they have one more run in them?  Not in the AFC, the teams are too good.

Miami Dolphins:  I'd love to pick the Dolphins, but they have an epically brutal schedule this year that I just can't see them having a realistic chance of making the playoff cut.  I think like the Redskins and Bucs though, that they have the shot late in the year to decisively decide a few close divisional races.

Buffalo Bills   *sigh*  Yeah, I got nothing.  It seem like management of this team doesn't really care if they win anymore and it shows in personnel decisions.



AFC West:  Another division of strong rivalries.  They make for great history, but sometimes for lousy picks.

San Diego Chargers:  The Chargers are the team of forever "next year."  They do great, win games, get high play off seeds, and then just can't get the job done when it counts the most.  That said they'll be there in December yet again, but the loss of LT is about more than on the field.  They guy was a locker room leader for that team and they'll feel his loss.

Denver Broncos:  I'm done waiting for Kyle Orton to fold.  I'm done doubting the guy.  Sportscasters have been selling his guy short for years and all he does is play smart football and win.  So why would I pick against him?  But at the end of the day I don't like how they match up with the top AFC teams, week three against the Colts and six against the Jets is going to tell us what this team is made of, and if they're going to try to pull an upset at playoff time.

Kansas City Chiefs:  I think the Chiefs are trying to do Daniel Snider on the cheep.  They couldn't grow a qb at home... so they went out and got Matt Castle.. the running game needed a second guy.. enter Thomas Jones.  That said, the threat of Jones in the backfield could help keep Castle on his feet behind a suspect offensive line, and I'm picking the Chiefs to be a team on the bubble late in the year.  Late November- the end of the season is very easy for them schedule wise with the only top teams they're going to face being the Chargers.  If they can pull upsets on the Titans and Broncos late, they could well shake up the playoff picture and sneak in themselves with a late season surge.

Oakland Raiders:  Is it possible for us to vote a team to Arena Football?  Please? 



Coming up: The rest of the AFC.  AFC Championship game.   And my superbowl picks.

[Bryan Payne]

AFC North: Could be a really tight four way race this year and could end up sending three teams to the playoffs if things go right.  More likely however, in the AFC it'll just be two.


Pittsburgh Steelers:  Yeah, I know, no Big Ben.  But this is still a great all around football team that will have to find it's roots again with smash mouth football.  I think they'll do it; I've seen too much out of this organization that expects greatness to pick against them in a tight divisional race.

Baltimore Ravens:  Could just have the most brutal schedule of any team this season.  It's insane.   But I think this team is built to weather that storm and make it into the playoffs despite it, and fighting that war all season is going to leave them ready for anything. 

Cleveland Browns:  Jake Delhomme is your answer?   Really?  Just when it looked like the Browns were on the right path over the last couple seasons they go and do something like this.  Hell maybe it'll work out, but the guy couldn't get it done with Carolina, he's damn sure not going to get it done against the Steelers and Ravens in December.

Cincinnati Bengals:  Every year people say "this is the year the Bengals start playing up to their talent"  they never do.  My vote is that this is the year the wheels come totally off.  It's time to tear apart that team and start over, they are dysfunctional from the coach down.


AFC SOUTH   For a division with the Colts in it, it's always home to some surprisingly good games.  I don't expect anything different this year.

Indianapolis Colts:  Over the last decade this is the winningest team.... in the history of the NFL.   I know the whole thing about the Super Bowl loser struggling, but I think Manning is going to come out slinging and now he's got another weapon on Gonzales healthy.  They will establish themselves early as the class of the AFC and never look back.  Key time period for the Colts is November 19- December 19, They go to the Patriots, Dallas and Chargers at Home, to Tennessee and then get the Jags at home, a team they historically have struggles with.  They come out of that stretch 3-2 or 4-1 possibly earning their first loss of the season along the way.

Tennessee Titans:  They've got age problems on Defense and nothing much that scares people in the passing game.  But they've got Vince Young back in rookie of the year form, and Chris Johnson in the backfield striking terror in the hearts of all.  Teams will scheme against Johnson, they don't have a choice, and Vince will wrack up 500-800 yards on the ground himself and 2500 through the air goal line dancing the Titans back into the playoffs.

Houston Texans:  They'll break even.  The difference between 9-7 and 7-9 is narrow but sometimes meaningful.  They've proven they can draft..  and they've proven they can add the right vets to improve their football team, but I still question their offensive line.  And until they can fix that they're going to struggle against the powerful pass rushes they're going up against in the AFC, and be unable to run the ball enough to slow it down. 

Jacksonville Jaguars:    I'm not really sure what's going on in Jacksonville.  The last four seasons seem to have been a process of getting rid of most of the players who made them great, and they are still struggling to put together a consistent group of wide receivers for Gerard.  They're in for a rough season and may have a new head coach by the end of it.


AFC Championship Game: 

Jets at Indianapolis.   In a repeat of last year these two teams will go at it again with the Colts putting a stamp of finality on a plucky young Jets  team late in the 4th.  There will be writing on the wall though, the Jets are on the way up and the Colts only have a couple more seasons of opportunity before the wheels start to come off.




SUPERBOWL!!

Colts vs Packers.

Are you feeling this game?  It could be 40-40 at halftime.  It's going to put in mind some of the great young up and coming vs future all of famer qb battles of old... the Bledsoe vs Marino battles come to mind.    Either way this is going to be an entertaining superbowl, but not good to watch if you're faint of heart.

Super Bowl MVP: Peyton Manning


Offensive Rookie of the Year:  Dez Bryant
Defensive Rookie of the Year:  Jason Pierre-Paul

NFL MVP:  Drew Brees 

Upset of the Year:  December 16th.  49ers at San Diego.   The 9ers will rise up and beat the Chargers settling the first seed in the AFC playoffs in the Colts favor. 

[The Dudester]

Got some balls man... some wild picking there..

A few I disagree with:

AFC..... Bengals last? They swept the division last year, 6-0, and have the same team coming back, except with some better additions. The Browns... suck. Pitt without Big Ben will struggle not to start 0-6, and the Ravens added a top WR, but little else. I still see the Bengals taking the division.

NFC... Vikings over Packers... IF Favre comes back. The Vikes D is just too tough, and both games they pushed GB's line all over the place, and they'll do it again. Without Favre, they are 10-6 team at best.

And I don't see anyone BUT the Jets making the SB in the AFC this year. They've just added too much to an already good team. You're giving LT a solid ass line to run behind, and while he's not LT of 04-05, he's still a top 10 RB. And Braylon Edwards certainly isn't a great #1, but he's not that anymore with the addition they made. And the really bolstered that defense. LT's presence will take pressure of Sanchez and the Jets got a DAMN GOOD football team that's looking at 14-2, 13-3 type season.

And I think the Browns may be worse than Carolina this year. Dropping both their QB's for... Delhomme?? I can't wrap my mind around that. Delhomme isn't the QB that went to the SB years ago... he's lost his mojo. And to boot, there are no strong WR options for him to throw too even. The Browns this year I really think will be the skunk of the leage, losing to anyone and everyone, including the abysmal Rams, Lions and Bucs. (damn city can't get a break in any sport, huh)

[Bryan Payne]

Hey man, go big or go home with picks. 

  I could be wrong... but yeah, the Bengals I do see falling apart this year, just too much wrong in that franchise to give them a shot at making a run.  Maybe they do top the Browns, but the Browns are used to playing without a great QB they've been doing it.. well.. for almost ever and still seem to put a little something together late to surprise people.  Ultimately even in Delohme sucks he's not any worse than what they had before they brought him in... so it's really a way for them to get out form under the sub par QB controversy while they look for another young guy to develop.  What it comes down to ultimately for me is Flacco having had another year to develop... and they've added Boldin to a receiver group that's full of several good veteran guys.  Their D returned to form last year in the playoffs shoving people around and I think they're going to come out early in the year the same way.  As i mentioned they have one of the most brutal schedules I've ever seen, but if they can survive it... they're going to be more ready for playoff football... than anyone else in the league.  That and Pitt is what ultimately is going to doom Cinci when their off the field crap bubbles to the surface again. 

As for the Jets.. they're good, I'll give you that.  But it wasn't that long ago that people were writing them OUT of the play offs.  It's one thing to play above yourself for four or five games and shock the league.  Now they have to prove they can do it for 16 straight games overcoming the foibles along the way from their younger players and deal with the pressure of being a team that everyone now KNOWS is good and will prepare for accordingly. 

As for Pitt I'd be shocked if they came out of those games w/o Ben less than 4-2.  Possibly 3-3.  The games are Atlanta, @Tennessee, @Tampa Bay, then Baltimore and Cleveland at Home.  The Steelers have three veteran QBs with play off experience on their bench they're not losing much from a Big Ben who hasn't been the same guy since that motorcycle wreck and his legal problems began.  I'm not sure the guy is mentally tough.  I think it's getting to him.  They still have good running backs and a top five defense... and early in the year the defenses always seem to have the advantage anyway.

[Bryan Payne]

You knew it had to happen eventually.  Love or hate the Cowboys, in the early to mid 90's they simply were the class of the NFL.  So it was with a hint of expectation and no little feeling that it was right and proper that when Emmitt Smith was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame he spent as much time talking about his former team mates as he did about his own on the field accomplishments.  Aikman, Irvin, and Smith will always be linked and it's a testament to how good they really were together that to this day teams still look for their own versions of the triplets when rebuilding a team.  Sure it might seem like common sense that you need a good running back, quarterback, and receiver to make your offense run but, with the exception of the quarter back, until then they were never really expected to be the emotional driving force behind a teams success and symbols of the team at large.

Say what you want about legacies, or shiftiness, or pure running power.... the level of productivity this guy displayed over the length of time he displayed it will probably never be duplicated by another back ever; that era seems to simply be over as once again teams are increasingly returning to a two or three back set as powerhouses workhorses burn out after a few great seasons.  When once asked who he saw among the up and commers who might be a threat to his record... Smith came up with only one name a few years back, Laidanian Tomlinson who has since suffered a noticeable lack of production.   

So it's been debated time and time again where exactly you would rank the great running backs of all time.  Indeed the most difficult part is figuring out the proper mode of comparison.  Many who argue for Smith's inclusion among the greats, rightly point to his breaking the lifetime rushing record and smashing Jim Browns touchdown record to ribbons.  But that's not what I'll remember the most.  What I'll remember is how hard he ran, the look his eyes when the camera caught it.  How linebackers used to say he was so hard to bring down because he used his body motion at perfect moments so he was impossible to lay a solid hit on.  I'll remember his toughness, no matter how beat up, banged up he was they could put the ball into his hands knowing they were only going on way:  forward.

In some ways Smith is so hard to rank among his peers because he came into the game two decades too late.  He was a throw back to the days of running backs who toiled away endlessly night after night in the mud and muck against the Steel Curtain, the Purple People Eaters, and the Doomsday Defense.  He was a man outside of his time, but for the time he was with us he demonstrated exactly what is wrong with the new breed of running backs like Reggie Bush, or an even more established guy like Michael Westbrook.  Simply put the age of the pure runner going nose to nose with the defense between the tackles is coming to a close.  Screen passes, outside running and running back by committee have replaced the bone on bone grind down of a defense until it was powerless to stop you offensively.  That is what football used to be about.

So rank your greats where you want them.  Think what you will about his career or if he tried to hang around too long.  Just remember: he was one of a kind and we'll probably never see his like again in uniform on Sunday's.  Congrats number 22, and thanks for the memories.

[Mark Mania]

Well Bryan,

It's amazing how much can change in such a short amount of time. As a Patriots fan, I obviously focused mostly on your thoughts on the AFC East. I will admit, the Jets were a far better team than I expected them to be, but now it looks like Darrelle Revis will be sitting on the sidelines for at least a few games while Wes Welker will most likely be on the field the first Patriots regular season game.

I'll admit, Brady's head does worry me and not just because of the knee but also he has so much other shit going on in his life. I'm not going to say he needed to ignore his wife and kids for football, but, Bill Belichick is.

This season, Brady has expectations set on him again, last season everyone gave him a pass because of his knee, there is no pass this year for Brady, with Welker coming back, Randy Moss only being 33 years old, and Torry Holt being a better option that Joey Galloway, I have a feeling that Brady is going to respond.

Belichick let his ego get the best of him with the defense, but now, they've had a full year together as the current squad and it's time for Jerod Mayo to finally step up and be the number one defensive threat.

With experience the defense will improve, and with Brady having something to prove again, he'll work his ass off.

I don't want to say that the Jets were just a flash in the pan, but their defense cannot carry them without Darrelle Revis and LT is old as all hell on the offensive side. The key for the Jets is Mark Sanchez, without him, the Jets wont do a damn thing...

Great breakdowns Bryan, I like them, but this is sports, it has to be riddled with debate at all times!

[Bryan Payne]

That's very true Mark, I still don't know if Revis by himself is enough to swing the division back to the Pats, but I think it does shake up the play off picture quite a bit in the long run, and yes give the Pats another window.   As you mentioned Moss, I'm concerned about the overall age of their receivers...  I mean where are their young budding offensive threats?.... the ones not coming off serious injury that is.   Perhaps I'm uninformed on that score so if you do know please tell me who to keep an eye on.

Welker being back is no doubt great for the Pats.. if he hasn't come back too soon and in week one something snaps again...  we'll see what happens we can only hope that he and Brady really are totally back, but I'm not ready to pick them to win the whole thing until they prove it to me.   

[Bryan Payne]

I'm looking for a new Payne Filled Outlook topic and open to suggestions.  Got any in depth stuff you'd liked looked into or your favorite team gone over with a fine toothed comb like i've done a with a few others here?  Let me know.